Low Interest and Credit Boom Boosted the Housing Market

 

This report under the general title of “Housing Market Overview” prepared by Bahçeşehir University Center for Economic and Social Research (BETAM) using the sahibinden.com data pool; 2017 September – 2020 December period, rent and the current price of the sale housing market (announced price) and the price adjusted for inflation (real prices), sales volume and unpublished developments in relation to the life span of ads, across Turkey, with a metropolitan status 30 provincial-level and cheap-luxury.It aims to examine residential distinction.

In terms of current prices, as of September 2017, sales prices and rents have followed an increasing trend, as expected, although at different paces. m2 of housing prices announced for sale in 2017 September-December 2020 period increased by 50 percent in Turkey. In three major cities, the highest increase was seen in İzmir with 60 percent, while it was 50 percent in Ankara and 40 percent in Istanbul. However, the course of inflation-free sales prices (real prices) is different. Real sales prices, which decreased from September 2017 to the pandemic period, have increased since last spring, and losses in previous years have been significantly compensated. As of December 2020, the loss in real sales price across the country is around 8 percent compared to September 2017, and it is slightly more in Istanbul (12 percent). On the other hand, the real depreciation in Ankara and Izmir was almost compensated. The number of ads for sale and the number of houses sold, which remained flat until 2020, increased rapidly after the pandemic. It is clearly seen that the great increase in low-interest housing loans, which started to be implemented in this period, brought vitality to the housing market for sale.

The m2 price data in rental housing advertisements show that current prices increased by 19 percent across the country in December 2020 compared to December of the previous year. The rental housing m2 price, which was 12.9 TL in December 2019, rose to 15.4 TL in December 2020. Considering the three major provinces, the highest increase was in Istanbul with 24 percent, followed by Izmir with an increase of 18 percent, and the rent increase in Ankara was 10 percent. As a result of these increases, the rental housing average m2 prices were 21.7 TL in Istanbul, 16.7 TL in İzmir, and increased to 11.1 TL in Ankara.

Despite the increase in rents at current prices across the country, as this increase remained below the increase in the general price level, there was a decline in rents (real rents) adjusted for inflation. Although the lease of real progress in the nearly three years (39 months) periodically limited increase observed at 2020 Turkey real rents in December, compared with September 2017 is lower than 25 percent overall. Although real rents in three major provinces have a decreasing trend in this period as in the whole country, the decline is more limited compared to the country in general and the real decline was below 20 percent. It is observed that the number of rental ads started to increase with the start of the pandemic, and started to decrease in the last three months of the year. On the other hand, it is observed that the ratio of rented houses to the total number of rental houses increased up to 19 percent in the period when the number of rental advertisements increased.

 

Source :  https://betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr/2021/01/konut-piyasasi-gorunumu/

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